Building a Predictive Model of Galaxy Formation|
In this paper, I use an extremely simple galaxy formation model, and a single constraint - the z=0 stellar mass function of galaxies. What sets this study apart from previous, similar studies, is that I attempt to carefully quantify sources of random and systematic error in both the data and the model, and to account for these when constructing the model likelihood function. For example, I compute the full covariance matrix of the stellar mass function, which turns out to look like this (well, technically this is the correlation matrix). Read the paper...